The causes of inflation simplified (or)
The
calamity of making ECONOMICS a complex science !
At bottom, every human behaviour is driven
by an existential predilection or pre-disposition that man may not always fully
aware of. He is only a toy that moves as per the hidden directive energies in
nature. Instead of being aware of such deeper motivational factors of nature, what we are aware about is the
sequential order of behaviour, ie. what usually follows one behaviour after
the other, or one event after the other.
For example, a man drinks water when he
feels thirst. We tend to attribute thirst as the cause of drinking water But the
act of drinking water was only an current sequential event in a long biological
chain, hence it is not sensible and
logical to attribute the CAUSE factor to THIRST. Thirst was in fact body’s
signal method of meeting its fluid need.
Regular fluid need of the human body would have been a better CAUSE here than
the feeling of thirst. In most of such routine events in life, one act or
behaviour usually follows the other, in a routine sequence.
For achieving better clarity in
understanding such existential motivational factors, we better divide these
drives into two obvious categories, ie. needs of the body and needs of the mind.
Man has two bodies, one the biological body,
and the other the social, or the emotional (that pertains to mind) body. Hence
we better divide the needs also into that of the body and mind so that we could
attribute most of our ECONOMIC NEEDS pertaining to our emotional needs, the chief
theme of this small paper.
We are familiar with the routine needs of
our body such as food and water, sexual needs related to procreation, warmth of
the body in winter and coolness of the body in summer, comfortable place to
rest (shelter and related body needs) etc
What is the separate body of the mind ? We better take man’s ‘ego’ entity as his body of the mind, or
‘social body’, as ego is fundamentally a social product. Every one develops it
as a result of man’s constant social interactions. Like heavenly bodies are in
their assigned place in the space and orbit due to the work of gravitation,
hidden energies involved in social interaction keeps every person in his place
in society, and directs his social behaviour. ( please see more on this
proposition from our blog: http://unrecognizedobjectsofthemind.blogspot.in/
( see the 2nd blog, end portions)
As we are some what familiar with the
motives of the physical body as mentioned above, the possible motives
associated with the economic behaviour of a man can be analysed here as
the motives of his social body, the ego. This is because of the fact that with out any science of economics, members of
animal kingdom seek and satisfy all their biological needs more over
satisfactorily without the help of formal economics. Though they also have ego phenomenon in
rudimentary forms, it is not as profound as that in man. Animals are more body
than mind, whereas man is more mind than body.
The old economics was more about scarcity
of products against man’s unlimited wants. But today, this scarcity aspect has
more or less has vanished from the world, thanks to its Green revolutions and the
industrial boost. Hence economics can have its scope and meaning re-defined,
accommodating the newer realities of abundant supply of food and other life
needs of man. As Henry Ford had said, world has managed to produce enough
and more to feed the entire population, but why
we still have majority of it in
poverty is indicative of the failure of our management system and social values.
Unlike the animal kingdom, man can be said
to be living in two worlds - -a physical world of land, buildings, rivers,
airports and bridges, and the other the notional world, where the ego, his
virtual body resides: the world of ideas, values, fears and concepts; the
market place of predominant collective emotions. In countries where value and respect for concepts
like individual dignity is more stringent, this market place of emotions has a
different colour, compared to where such
value concerns have scant regard. Here, people behave at more ease with the
fellow beings, if police and state officials treat the citizens with more dignity
and care. In over populated societies, such kind of care from the state said to
be impractical, hence the notional world of the egos is full of negative
emotions like mutual fear and animosity. Naturally, unlike in the former model,
the saving, investment and the profit related behaviour of citizens would be
drastically different. For example, in USA, before the present economic
slowdown in their country, people generally were not in the habit of ‘saving’ for the future, as the social
security schemes had been more than
adequate to take care of their uncertainties of future. People ate, drank and
travelled the world immensely, burning out years’ of savings completely. .
Hence, if the most relevant motive of man’s
economic behaviour is to be singled out, it couldn’t be none other than his
fear of future. His anxiety about the uncertainty
of future, about food, shelter and cloths. Also, more importantly, about safe
keeping of his individual dignity in society. It is also directly linked with
his material wellbeing in our kind of societies, where human rights standards
are very low and disturbing. His buying, selling, his hoarding, his
investment and saving behaviour, the profit fixing for his produce etc.
are based and influenced predominantly
by this anxiety for future. As we have already referred earlier, the
scarcity factor of food etc. is not at all existing in the modern world, except the fears around its
equitable distribution due to its man-made administrative chaos.
As the scope of this small write-up is
not a full-fledged thesis on Economics, let it pay its attention only towards
the aspect of ‘commodity pricing’ by the business community as an economic
behaviour, and its direct relation with the phenomenon of inflation.
Those who are in their 40s and fifties of
age must have heard stories from their parents about a sack of rice or wheat
coming for certain ‘anaas’ ( earlier denomination an Indian rupee before the
introduction of ‘paise’) during their
time. Same quantity of rice or wheat was available in our childhood for at
least 10 times less than what is its current price . Prices would be 10 times
more in the coming 20 or 25 years!
Inflation, or the losing of value for a
given amount of money, is the bane of the present day world of economics.
What could be the chief cause of this
calamity of inflation ?
Free market was supposed to be directed by
the natural forces of Demand and supply. In the modern world, such temporary
imbalances are instantly filled, thanks to the improved technologies, transport
system, and improved irrigation, and modern agricultural technology
advancement. So, those old theory can not be attributed as cause for the
phenomenon of inflation. Even if prices increase temporarily, on short term
incidents of lower supply, prices should come back to normal when supply
position improves. Hence, the classical free market laws can not be attributed
to modern inflation.
What could be a rational cause of the
phenomenon of inflation ? Or the ever increasing rise of prices, irrespective
of its temporary rise and fall, that reflect in government’s
index system ? The prices of every item 10
years back , by all standards, would be at least double by now, though the
temporary inflation index might have gone up and down many times. But we know that
prices once gone-up would never comes down to the previous level. If that was
the normal course of the market, inflation would never have occurred . The
course of price is always up, never down.
Understanding
the phenomenon of price rise in simpleton logic
The chief reasons of price rise is, as
mentioned above, is related to pricing of the merchandise by the manufacturer
and traders. As there is no law or norm for fixing the profit margins, the
price of a commodity or product is what is decided by the manufacturer or
producer.
As those who do business is in the
exclusive realm for profit, and making surplus capital, they will always resist
to be a helpless victim of the ‘free market’ corrections, and balancing of
prices and profits. Such forces are agents of uncertainty, which could happen
at any time without caution and notice. Hence, it is wise for him to reap
profits as and when circumstances are favourable, ie. any time is good time for
accomplishing this prime goal of business. Hence, any reason or cause that
allows him to increase the price will be definitely utilized by him to save precious
time and energy.
Take up the typical case of short supply in
the market for any given commodity to increase prices. Short-supply in itself
need not be a cause of price increase unless there was an increase in cost of
production. If the crops were not high as per expectation, farmer is entitled
to charge more per unit of the produce in-order to cover up his earlier
expected profit. Here too, there is a
law that says ‘anticipated losses are not losses’. If the temporary short supply was due to end of
harvesting season of a farm produce, it should not be a cause of price increase,
as here too, there was not any change of cost of production.
Take for example the case of shortage of a
raw-material in the market, and the subsequent price increase. When the price
is increased due to short supply of a raw-material, in most of such cases, the price increase was an
arbitrary decision of either the manufacturer, or the farm-producer to take
psychological advantage of the shortage. It was not due to any real cost of
production, and the subsequent price increase at the first point of supply.
Short-supply, hence always is a blessing in disguise for the trader class to
increase prices arbitrarily. What energy in action is the earlier seen neurosis
of the business class to make the profit accumulation a fastest possible
process ! Everything here was in the mind only, without any actual increase in
cost of production.
The reaction of a price increase at the
first point will cause a chain reaction. At every subsequent point of trade, an
arbitrary hike is added, in tune with every trader’s motivation to accelerate
his profit making process fastest possible. Thus, if at the first point price
increase was 10 %, at the final point to the user/ purchaser, it would have
become 30 to 40 %..
Even when the supply becomes normal, the
corresponding price reduction would always be marginal. It leaves the base
price of the product higher than the earlier price after every event of price
increase. The above 30 to 40% temporarily increased price may get reduced
to 20 – or 25 %, leaving the net price
substantially above the earlier prices every time. In short, any reason-
real, or imaginary- for a price rise goes to the net advantage of the trader
and the business man. This arbitrary nature of
price increase by the trader and business man is the prime cause of the
phenomenon of inflation.
The other social evil of price increase is
that, every currency that reaches the hands of its beneficiary by way pf price
increase goes to make a surplus, and such surpluses first goes to enhance his
purchasing and bargaining power in the society. In other-words, when ever a poorest of the poor pays an extra currency by way
of an increased price for a commodity, the degree in which he was deprived goes
to make an increase in the same degree the richness of the trader, or any other
such beneficiary ! As this process goes longer, and becomes a regular
phenomenon in the market, the poor gets more poor and the rich gets more rich,
somewhat in the same degree.
As price increase or inflation stays in the
market as a regular phenomenon, the luxury commodities ( it includes even the good
quality fruits and vegetables !) first go beyond the reach of the poor,
followed by even the bare necessities of life such as grains and cereals. The
assets such as land buildings are the first items that become un-affordable for
the poor first, followed by the daily consumables. Such deprivations go hand in
hand with the erosion of his social status too. For affording the bare
necessities of life, or for meeting unavoidable medical needs, the poor are forced to sell off
his land holdings, and moves to hutment-clusters where the economically poor
reside. Then the above narrated step by step deprivation process takes place in
his life !
When 'development' goes ahead in its present format, who suffer the most would be the ones who are drained of all their income sources, either temporarily,or permanently- on account of retirement, or sudden death of the earning member in the family, or sudden lose of job of the head-of the family. When the price of even the basic-needs of life items are also very high, these unfortunate ones have to ends their lives, or beg anonymously at remote habitats ! This blind course of price-rise could dangerously put life of man in great danger if wars or natural calamities engulf a region, or the entire country. The process of price-rise or inflation is a totally irrational and senseless course, that would land mankind into untold miseries any time. It would, of course, get the weak and the helpless annihilated faster in such mass calamities, leaving only the minority rich and powerful surviving, proving Darwin's theory right !
When 'development' goes ahead in its present format, who suffer the most would be the ones who are drained of all their income sources, either temporarily,or permanently- on account of retirement, or sudden death of the earning member in the family, or sudden lose of job of the head-of the family. When the price of even the basic-needs of life items are also very high, these unfortunate ones have to ends their lives, or beg anonymously at remote habitats ! This blind course of price-rise could dangerously put life of man in great danger if wars or natural calamities engulf a region, or the entire country. The process of price-rise or inflation is a totally irrational and senseless course, that would land mankind into untold miseries any time. It would, of course, get the weak and the helpless annihilated faster in such mass calamities, leaving only the minority rich and powerful surviving, proving Darwin's theory right !
The above described is a day-light like
plain economic process in the modern capitalistic societies, which,
unfortunately for our age, is considered as the unavailable natural law, that of
the survival of the fittest. Here, what gets seriously ignored is the plain,
unnaturalness in the process; ie. social
approval of the tendency of the rich to have special consideration and special
status in society, even when he is engaged in the anti-social act of arbitrary increase in prices, and thus moving
his life into higher echelons of social status and better quality of life.
The increase in money supply
Inflation can not happen merely due to
price increase. It often happens with a
corresponding, or more than corresponding rate of money supply in the market.
If it was due to price increase alone, the net result would have been reduction
in demand, and also in purchase. Buyer has a limitation to cope-up with the
increased prices of the commodities when his income remains the same.
Here what actually happens is that , when
ever the business man gains through increased profit by way of the earlier seen
arbitrary nature of price increase, he shares part of his gains with his
employees, by way of annual increments and perks. Government employees are
benefited too, by way of the dearness allowances in proportion to the market
price index. When more money reaches the hands of the actual buyers, he stops
murmuring about the constant price
increase. At least part of the increased market prices has been met by his
income increase. When the business man knows that buying capacity of the
customers are more than adequate, his perpetual hunger for more profits and
gains compels him to apply the same technique again and again, thus keeping the
market
inflamed every time !
Poverty, and the natural elimination process
of the poor and the down-trodden
One who has the net gain from this exercise
is always the business class, and the net loser is the bottom layer in the
society, whose income sources remain the least increased every time. His buying
capacity gets reduced to affording only the bare minimum for subsistence !
Nutritious food items, fruits and vegetables get absent from his bowl after
every incident of price rise. Thus, this process gets resulted into a kind of
natural elimination, or sieving out of the bottom layer in society in a sure
and certain economic process. It is extremely simple a process, needing no
great economic sense to understand.
The solution
A very strict and effective system of price
control is the simple answer. For every further increase in price, by every
sector, a permission from a special ministry could be obtained. Except some
degree of annual price rise, NO interim price increase should be permitted at
nay cost, unless a cost-sheet ,explaining the specific reason for the increase
is submitted to the concerned authority.
Free market and its sacred balancing act
was a thing of remote past, when barter system was prevalent in the world. In
the modern price, market could be easily
manipulated to create artificial supply and demand scenes, to have price
increases and more profit gains.
Some kind of control could be attained at
the employer-end too, by way of
decreasing the difference in the highest and lowest wages in every
industry and office. When such great difference exists in the wage level,
business houses tend to manufacture and design special ‘elite’ products and
services in the market to target this excess income of the buyers. This
phenomenon also pumps the market with more money, thus adding up to the
inflationary pressure.
The establishment of our times, which we
claim democratic, has been degenerated into a realm for fierce competition, or
even war to have control over the old traditional realm of Kings and emperors;
the realm of ruling the country, It still has all its old power, grandeur,
Royalty, and control over immense wealth of the country. Being it vaguely
defined as PEOPLES OWN FORM OF GOVERNMENT and nothing else, the rights, status
and dignity deprived ordinary people ( the subjects ) of the old realms are now
engaged in a maddest possible fight to capture these neo realm of COUNTRY
–RULE. Hence, our modern day establishments are NOT sacred realms of peoples
collective, with the historic, moral responsibility of achieving universal
goals of equality, rights, dignity and human civilizational growth.
The runners of the game are desperate men
wanting to avoid theirs and their families falling into the disgrace and
deprivation of the old times, by making use of the rare opportunity of the
share in country rule to amass wealth for them and for their many future
generations in the shortest span of times. This unfortunate state of affairs
has made the trading and manufacturing community in every nation the best
partners in achieving the same goal. This particular tacit arrangement helps to
plainly breed the above narrated sieving out the poor and the deprived
naturally into a classic realm of the poor in every nation.
For meeting the ideological compulsions of
modern age , where altruism and social responsibility are catchy moral slogans
that enhances the social status of the rich and the powerful, special realms
have been kept these poorest of the poor where charities of different sorts are
pumped. Every modern establishment, thus, maintain this realm of the poor and
the deprived like a super refugee camp, and engaged in a competition of a sort
to show that their real poverty level always bit above the global statistical
average ! Indeed a very tragic state of affairs, but it is the norm of the
modern age, that media drum it out 24x7 as the democratic era of the 3rd
millennium !
In short, the existing model of economic
growth, by depending upon the industrial class to build more and factories and
production centres has to be thoroughly reviewed for its ability to end-up in
healthy future societies where social equality and individual dignity prevails.
In the present set-up, no other skill other than that of entrepreneurship is
encouraged and respected. Every other realm of ability and knowledge and
pursuits is expected to aid the former realm, for practical reason. Concept of
a healthy society dies in such a socio-economic set-up.
As Rousseau had once quipped , ‘ In a word,
I could prove that, if we have a few rich and powerful men on the pinnacle of
fortune and grandeur, while the crowd grovels in want and obscurity, it is
because the former prize what they enjoy only in so far as others are destitute
of it; and because without changing their condition, they would cease to be
happy the moment the people ceases to be wretched’. He plainly meant that it is only the sense of
inequality that the rich enjoy: NOT the actual pleasure from the superiority of
their rich food or surrounding. The dry bread that the poor daily eats gives
them equal satisfaction what the
buttered bread that the rich eats every day, as far as such difference is NOT a
matter of social status discrimination. What ever the rich does in his palatial
house is the same the poor does it at his hut, including eats, mating and
enjoying the social pleasures. Before the invention of electricity, weather
control devices and speed locomotives, to days’ rich and poor both had lived a
more equal life with regard to amenities of life.
The gross inequality has emerged when such
amenities have become institutionalized symbols of the life of rich, and
society built massive boundary lines between the lives of the two different
classes. As Rousseau said, the pleasure of the rich would vanish the moment
such amenities are made universal standard of the life of every one, or by
intentional social engineering by genuine collective realms of modern society, such
dividing symbols of social differentiation are gradually taken away from
society.
For example, the star based hotel system,
the gross inequality in the matter of production of high value and low value
cars, restrictions in the size and scope of house building, gradual avoidance
of class distinctions in public transport travels including that of air-travel,
and total avoidance of King time public ceremonies in the honour of democratic
office bearers of government etc would serve the CAUSE of social equality in
long run.
But price rise and inflation is the root
channel of generating social and economic inequality in society. It is NOT a
natural work of market, but the work of intentional greed of one group of
members in society, supported by an establishment that ideologically is in tune
with the anti-civilization tendencies of the age. If the Feudal system of the
past is non-existent today in its old form, present capitalist system too is
NOT different in essence from Feudalism; it goes on creating Feudal Lords of a
different kind, with their same status and role in modern society. The status,
reach, influence of the rich and powerful in today’s world is NOT at all less
than that once enjoyed by the Feudal Lords of the past !
Authored by: Abraham Joseph
An independent philosophy, mind,Reason,spirituality and Polity seeker, researher&writer.
Contact us with comments, support and
feed-back: ajoseph1@rediffmail.com
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